The expanded 48-team FIFA World Cup format has come under increasing scrutiny as concerns grow that the tournament’s new structure has significantly reduced the drama and competitiveness traditionally associated with the group stage.
While the competition has produced its fair share of surprises, including South Africa’s stunning 1-0 victory over South Korea, football analysts argue that the introduction of eight third-placed qualification spots has lessened the sense of urgency that once defined the opening phase of the World Cup.
South Africa’s victory on Wednesday secured Bafana Bafana a historic place in the knockout stage for the first time. However, despite the defeat, South Korea remain in a strong position to qualify for the Round of 32 as one of the tournament’s eight best third-placed teams.
With three points and a goal difference of minus one, the Asian side is widely expected to advance, highlighting what critics describe as one of the unintended consequences of FIFA’s expanded competition format.
Under the previous 32-team World Cup structure, such a defeat would almost certainly have ended South Korea’s campaign. Instead, the revised qualification system has created a safety net that allows more teams to remain in contention despite disappointing results.
The 2026 tournament marks the first edition featuring 48 participating nations, prompting FIFA to redesign the competition format. The governing body settled on 12 groups of four teams, with the top two teams from each group automatically qualifying alongside the eight best third-placed teams to complete the 32-team knockout stage.
Originally, FIFA had proposed 16 groups of three teams, with the top two from each group progressing. However, widespread criticism centred on the possibility of teams manipulating results in the final group matches because one nation would be idle while the other two played.
The concerns were rooted in one of the World Cup’s most controversial episodes—the so-called “Disgrace of Gijón” at the 1982 FIFA World Cup. On that occasion, West Germany defeated Austria 1-0 in the final group match, a result that ensured both European nations advanced while eliminating Algeria. The outcome sparked allegations that both teams settled for a mutually beneficial scoreline after an early German goal.
The controversy prompted FIFA to introduce simultaneous kick-offs for the final group matches, a practice that has remained in place for decades to preserve sporting integrity.
However, despite retaining simultaneous final fixtures under the expanded format, critics argue that allowing eight third-placed teams to progress has created fresh opportunities for tactical calculations.
Attention has now turned to several crucial fixtures where mutually beneficial draws could suit both teams.
Australia and Paraguay, who each have three points in Group D, meet on Thursday in a match where a draw would likely leave both sides with four points—almost certainly enough for qualification to the knockout phase.
A similar situation is expected in Group J, where Austria face Algeria on Saturday. Both nations also sit on three points, meaning a draw could comfortably secure advancement for both teams.
Comparable scenarios exist elsewhere in the tournament. Japan, on four points, face Sweden, who have three, in Group F. While a draw would guarantee Sweden’s qualification, Japan have already accumulated enough points to feel confident of progressing even with a defeat.
Likewise, Ghana, with four points in Group L, take on Croatia, who sit on three points. Although a draw would be favourable to both teams, Ghana enter the contest with considerably less pressure given their strong qualification prospects.
Football observers argue that these scenarios expose one of the weaknesses of the expanded format, where teams may be incentivised to play cautiously rather than pursue victory.
Supporters of the new structure contend that the 48-team tournament has broadened global representation, providing more nations with the opportunity to compete on football’s biggest stage. They also argue that the increased number of knockout places keeps more teams involved deeper into the tournament, maintaining interest among fans from a wider range of countries.
Critics, however, believe the format has diluted the competitive intensity that made previous World Cups so compelling, particularly during the dramatic final round of group-stage matches witnessed at the 2022 tournament in Qatar.
As the competition progresses toward the knockout rounds, FIFA is likely to face renewed debate over whether expanding the tournament has enhanced the World Cup spectacle or unintentionally reduced the high-stakes drama that has long been one of the tournament’s defining characteristics.
